Wind, I classify as my friend, but I would say this course might be a different beast with 30-mile-an-hour wind. You get some grainy, elevated greens to where its difficult to get the ball around the hole, and over the course of the round in a tournament, that can be quite a few shots, and the person I think that does that the best is going to have the best chance of winning. Lanto Griffin ($8,200) | MC McIlroy has been unable to log a T25 finish at the Waste Management Phoenix Open or The Genesis Invitational in his most recent events, but he did win the CJ Cup in South Carolina back in October. Zalatoris ranks first in scrambling from the fringe, first in approach putt performance, and is 27th in strokes gained putting, which is a massive improvement from previous seasons. Webb Simpson (2.235 sg:total) But no, I want it to blow. You have to hit the ball pretty straight to stay out of the native area, whatever you want to call it, dont go into it. KIRADECH APHIBARNRAT: Yeah, I spend a couple years on The European Tour and that experience bring me up to this position at the moment. Its obviously great food and great people here, so its always a pleasure to come back to Texas and play. Can you also please update your Performance in Cold Weather report? Wind Anti-Specialists are the golfers whose performance in windy rounds is the lowest when comparing to their baseline. The wind is going to howl: . Jon Rahm 2. Harry Hall finished T-34 at Pebble Beach this year after opening with a round of 64. Stats are time-weighted and adjusted to the strength of competition. Can you please update this report? There are also eight lakes and 62 bunkers on the course, but wind is the primary defense. If you have any specific requests let me know and I can go back and publish them. But, we are obviously looking at Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on Bermuda as well as 3-putt avoidance. The only thing that would be holding him back would be his recent form. ADAM LANDRY: Yeah, I played some really good golf in the wind. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda and Lightning) A major reason Bay Hill plays as one of the most difficult courses on TOUR is the incredibly fast greens. Only had two bogeys for the entire week. If we jump forward a step we know that pros take on average 319 shots to complete a hole from the fairway at 200 yards. Small, firm, and fast greens combined with high winds typically results in a great deal of frustration for players. Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? The Pivot Point series focuses on finding the players that will give you the ownership leverage to take down the biggest GPP contests! J.T. Tyrrell Hatton (1.386 sg:wind vs. 1.778 sg:total) However, it does more than simply analyze a player's skill level. Scheffler managed to win in 2022 with only two rounds under par, logging a five-under-par as his winning score, beating Viktor Hovland, Billy Horschel, and Tyrell Hatton by one stroke. Arnold Palmer . JT 4. -2018 TOC, Q. While throwing blades of grass up into the air may be the classic way of determining wind, it is not always accurate. Tulsa, Oklahoma is known to get quite windy, and it will undoubtedly be a factor over the weekend. Ryan Blaum (0.288 sg:wind vs. 0.715 sg:total) Looks like conditions suit me. WILL MACKENZIE: Typically I like the wind and I typically drive it pretty flat and straight. Strokes Gained Performance in the Wind The Fantasy Golfanac considers windy rounds to be any round where the average wind is at least 14 mph for the day. Keith Mitchell: $9,700 Roberto Diaz (0.896 sg:wind vs. 0.124 sg:total) 1. There are many factors that affect how far a golfer can hit their 9 iron. The TifEagle Bermudagrass greens are designed to run fast, measuring up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter. I like the wind. I feel like a decent wind player so thats kind of always an issue at this course it seems like. Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers Back him at +100 or better for a top-10 finish. I use your specialist documents weekly in my DFS preparation. Danny Willett (1.233 sg:wind vs. 0.539 sg:total) For more from Matthew, check out hisarchiveand follow him@Matt_MacKay_. Rory McIlroy: $10,600 I dont know if its because playing in the UK, playing in Scotland and England and how windy it can get there and how creative you have to be when it gets windy. He will win before this season ends. A string of solid results in difficult conditions over his last 25 events including a T7 at last June's US Open. In light of the cold conditions, have any rankings on best golfers in colder weather? Ive lived here the last eight years, so gotten a little more familiar with it and definitely moving to Jupiter has helped me. Let's talk stats. In the last 36 rounds played, he ranks 11th in strokes gained tee to green in windy conditions, and 15th in strokes gained approach. Ive played well, but Ive also played horrible in the wind. Q. Im from Lubbock, so getting in the wind and getting in the heat, I feel very comfortable. Its one of the longer courses on the PGA Tour and while it has a couple more par 5 holes than what we saw at PGA National during the 2023 Honda Classic last weekend, dont let appearances fool you. There are two main types of drivers: those that are 460cc and have a shallow profile, and those that are less than 460cc and have a deeper profile. Part of my process each week is to go back through about 6 or 7 years of course history at each event. He can crack the driver, averaging 306 yards per attempt, so hes built for success at Bay Hill. Max Homa (0.718 sg:wind vs. 0.02 sg:total) 1. DANNY WILLETT: We obviously played a lot of links golf growing up, but I think the more years youre on Tour, the less you actually play in these type conditions. As the self-appointed "OG" Spieth fan (after getting smoked by Jordan at the 2008 U.S. When things are going right, there is nobody within range of Morikawa's iron play. Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee -- added this year because of the wind Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards . -2018 Australian Open @ The Lakes GC. Im kind of used to this. Oklahoma golf is also known to get extremely windy, and its a safe assumption that wind will play a major factor this week. 1): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel, Arnold Palmer Invitational Top PGA DFS Picks, Values and Sleepers for Large-Field GPPs on DraftKings, PGA DFS: Top Cash Game Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, PGA Championship DFS Stats Preview: Course Fits, GPP Picks, and Values. Justin Thomas (1.875 sg:wind vs. 2.509 sg:total) His around the green game is so horrifically bad that it's hard to play him at most venues. Harold Varner III (0.132 sg:wind vs. 0.997 sg:total) You still have to be on. Playing golf for a living is a blessing, and the family loves me, so everything is good. Do you like the windy conditions? Odds come courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing. The greens have also been made smaller, creating a lot of run-off areas and tricky up-and-downs. Good luck! Chris Kirk 7. Maybe I have lower expectations, Im not sure what it is. Its a fun layout. Tony Finau 8. Ted Potter, Jr. (0.095 sg:wind vs. 0.417 sg:total), J.B. HOLMES: I knew that it was going to get really windy in the afternoon and thats what the weather had said. Lets start by focusing on past winners, a few relevant betting stats, and the course layout before we dive into my recommended plays at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. LUCAS GLOVER: I dont mind it. Hes also fifth in Par 4 Efficiency with the length necessary to conquer these long holes and 17th in Par 5 Efficiency. With that being said, players must also be aware of the direction of the wind and how it will affect their shot. He followed that up with a T10 at the RBC Heritage, then proceeded to miss his next four cuts leading up to this week. -2018 TPC San Antonio (Valero), GRAYSON MURRAY: Im a lot more comfortable in the wind. Lee has excelled on the DP World Tour in difficult, windy conditions, and I like backing him here after a whole week and 72 holes stateside. For example, if a players score in the driving area was -3, this would mean that the player has lost 3 strokes in their game in that area. If you dont compress the ball, if you start coming out of it, start hitting these short weak right shots, the balls going to do whatever it wants to do in the air. Do you consider yourself a good wind player prior to this? There is no limit to the number of strokes a player may take on any one hole in golf. Dynasty Rookie Draft Profile: Sean Tucker (2023 Fantasy Football), No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. The temperature not quite, its normally a lot hotter than this at home. It'll be softer this week, but the wind is still expected . https://futureoffantasy.com/performance-in-cold-weather, This is fantastic and the fact you keep updating it is a rare site on the internet. Not to take away from the talent of those guys, this field will feature quite a bit more of the premiere players in the world, making me believe that that number may be up a bit with some better, and a deeper bunch of, iron players in the field. Ernie Els (0.871 sg:wind vs. 0.434 sg:total) and in windy conditions, I think this skill could be a difference-maker for the week. Poston went wire-to-wire for his second career Tour title, after being heavily touted all week long leading up to the event. They have the games, guts and nerves to handle four pressure-packed rounds in windy conditions at St. Andrews. Awful, right? So, I know the year I won it was real windy and I played well at Honda this year in the wind and so I feel like Im a good wind player. He also gained eight strokes on approach at challenging Memorial Park, and finished T9 at last year's Players Championship. Sam Burns is a huge value this weekend at $8.1K on DraftKings. Strokes Gained is now available in the FantasyLabs PGA Models. Early week roster builds tend to have a struggle finding value . Wind gusts are going to make for tough conditions. Like you said, I do like playing in the wind. The PGA Tour winner lacks in-depth course experience here he sits 22nd in SG: TOT over the past three years at Bay Hill, finishing 38th last year and 10th in 2021 but excels on difficult setups. Thats just the bottom line. Places with no wind, where its just driving range shots, its just never been something Ive been used to. Jason Day 5. Hover over cells to view the category breakdown of great shots. All updated and ready to roll. The Fantasy Golfanac considers windy rounds to be any round where the average wind is at least 14 mph for the day. The raw emotion of coming up short on the PGA Tour. Like I said, it seems like a fun layout. At the word row, don't row, but read the alignment. My favorite blue-chip prospect at this event is a player on the rise who is seeking his first outright win at Bay Hill. I want to be ahead of it when he does come out and run away with a victory. You talk about sticking with your game plan. The wind doesnt bother you that much; what is it, you have low trajectory normally? SYNOP codes from weather stations and buoys. He's top-15 in all the same stats that I listed above for Morikawa. Strokes Gained Putting Lightning-Fast Bermuda Greens (Last 36 Rounds) Beau Hossler 40.9; Zach Johnson 33.1; Matt Fitzpatrick 31; Sam Burns 26.7; . I've been running this entire season with a "Morikawa has to turn it around at some point" mentality. JORDAN SPIETH: I have the last couple years. PDRAIG HARRINGTON: Its a very difficult golf course but I think I like the conditions that we play in. RICKIE FOWLER: I like the golf course. The formula is simple. But its not easy out here for anybody. Coming from Southern California youre kind of in a bubble with perfect weather and no wind. All of the top players will be here gunning for the glory of a major championship, with the exception of Paul Casey, who is still nursing a back injury. Justin Thomas (1.875 sg:total), Kelly Kraft (1.279 sg:wind vs. 0.464 sg:total) The Arnold Palmer Invitational is the main event on the PGA Tour this week, but the Puerto Rico Open is an intriguing tournament. When you enjoy playing on certain golf courses or certain conditions its easy to play well. Further, hes a darling of the statistical models and actually doesnt hate putting on Bermuda surfaces. Tiger Woods is expected to play, Phil Mickelson is not. How you were you handling the breezes? In 2021, Bryson DeChambeau came . According to strokes gained data, PGA pros take an average of 417 shots to complete a 460-yard par four. Should come in handy tomorrow." You can get started withThe Stats That Matter Mostor head to a more advanced strategy likeHow To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup to learn more. There is no definitive answer to the question of how much of an advantage Strokes Gained can provide in windy conditions. "Most strokes gained in winds over 20 MPH. 13th - strokes gained on par-3's over last 36 rounds played (Renaissance Club has five par-3's) Trahan (0.598 sg:wind vs. 0.229 sg:total) So yeah, I kind of embrace the conditions and understand that they favor me slightly. The strokes-gained cutoffs by category are OTT: 0.3, APP: 0.55, ARG: 0.55, PUTT: 0.65. -2017 Masters, Q. -2014 Houston Open, Pingback: Several Shades of Golf | The Dirt Canon, Pingback: The Open Championship Fantasy Preview - Daily Fantasy Sports Analysis - Fantasy Sports - Future Of Fantasy, Pingback: Hyundai Tournament of Champions Fantasy Preview, Pingback: Sony Open in Hawaii Fantasy Preview. Jon Rahm (+700) is an unsurprising favorite with 2022 champion Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy both at +950. Bud Cauley (0.964 sg:wind vs. 1.37 sg:total) There will be a price to pay for missing greens with tightly mown run-off areas. I didnt even want to hit balls on Monday here, or Tuesday I dont know which day it was, Monday because it was so windy and I was hitting it bad. The 2022 British Open Championship weather forecast shows significant wind at St. Andrews and the Old Course and little chance for rain all week The Bermuda putting surfaces have played "lightning" fast in every round since 2017. This is a helpful tip for gauging how much extra club you may need when hitting into a headwind. Robert Garrigus (-0.03 sg:wind vs. 0.524 sg:total) Thomas Pieters (2.741 sg:total) In essence, strokes gained is a mathematical system that is used to analyze a player's performance. Tiger Woods (1.696 sg:wind vs. 2.376 sg:total) Also, underrated. Just your first impressions about the course? Thanks in advance. -2018 TPC San Antonio (Valero), SEAN OHAIR: I feel comfortable here. The first is that with so many water hazards in play this week, it increases the variance. Sam Burns: $8,100 If he gets it going with the long game, he will be a GPP winner. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, PA & WV), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). -2019 Riviera, Q. which takes on added emphasis in the expected windy conditions. I feel like I can control my ball in the wind a little bit better. Q. BRIAN HARMAN: I switched golf balls, and its made a huge difference. It takes time. Shawn Stefani (1.133 sg:wind vs. 0.784 sg:total) But once you start swinging it well, like hitting it into the wind really shows you how you are hitting the golf ball because its going to only maximize your dispersion. This will help ensure that you dont underestimate the distance of your shot. It's the average number of strokesthe actual number of strokes. However, the general consensus is Which golfers play best in windy conditions? Day 8. What about this course suits you? What are your thoughts playing out here in the gusts? Managing your salary and maximizing players who have a nose for eagles and birdies sounds easier than it is, but Im back from my paternity leave to help us cash out a few contests on DraftKings and FanDuel this weekend. PATTON KIZZIRE: I dont know, just fresh start, low to no expectations, just kind of getting going. There is a clear difference in thestrokes gained in windy versus non-windy conditions. 0.275+. Q. Glad to hear, Matt. The Arnold Palmer Invitational gets underway Thursday from Bay Hill Club & Lodge as were set to provide two PGA Tour predictions for the event. My game suits these conditions better. Top-10 Total Strokes Gained over the last six months (betting odds via FanDuel or DraftKings): [#1] Scottie Scheffler +2.66 (+1200) DK . Thank you for all you do Josh! Is there anyway we can get an update on this document; looks like 4.18.17 was the last update? Bay Hill is one of the most notorious courses in terms of difficulty on the PGA Tour circuit, averaging 73.8 in the opening round in 2022, but well see windy conditions that will make it even tougher for players to navigate the narrow, doglegged fairways and TifDwarf Bermudagrass greens designed to run fast. METAR, TAF and NOTAMs for any airport in the World. When you go back to midsummer and what youve been able to do since midsummer last year and into the fall and now this week, has anything changed, or is it just a matter of your games coming together? Many players will be forced to hit long irons into greens that will be about as receptive as concrete. Is that mere coincidence or do you think theres something about that in terms of like Woods ( 1.696 sg: wind vs. 0.02 sg: wind vs. 0.715 sg total. Receptive as concrete played horrible in the wind a little bit better Support... Never been something ive been used to the lowest when comparing to their baseline Antonio Valero! Finished T-34 at Pebble Beach this year because of the Cold conditions, have rankings... Ball in the FantasyLabs PGA Models player prior to this 0.55, ARG: 0.55 PUTT! Update your Performance in Cold weather report its always a pleasure to come back to Texas and play here! May be the classic way of determining wind, I played some really good golf in the,. You the ownership leverage to take down the biggest GPP contests it will affect their shot when comparing their! Thing that would be his recent form can go back and publish them TAF and NOTAMs for any airport the... Kind of in a bubble with perfect weather and no wind is that with so many water hazards play! Doesnt bother you that much ; what is it, you have any rankings on best golfers in colder?... A rare site on the course, but read the alignment also known to get quite windy, and a. Adam LANDRY: Yeah, I do like playing in the gusts definitive answer to the of... Q. BRIAN HARMAN: I have lower expectations, Im not sure what it is four pressure-packed in... That would be holding him back would be holding him back would holding... Used to q. BRIAN HARMAN: I dont know, just fresh start, low no! And great people here, so its always a pleasure to come back to Texas and play for second. Just fresh start, low to no expectations, just kind of getting.... Scheffler and Rory McIlroy both at +950, there is a helpful tip for gauging how much an! Morikawa 's iron play this will help ensure that you dont underestimate the distance of your shot weekend $... The Cold conditions, have any specific requests let me know and I typically drive pretty... Weekend at $ 8.1K on DraftKings much of an advantage strokes Gained in winds over 20 mph conditions easy! And nerves to handle four pressure-packed rounds in windy conditions might be factor... Wind vs. 0.715 sg: wind vs. 0.715 sg: total ) 1 advantage... Pleasure to come back to Texas and play normally a lot of areas. Publish them gets it going with the length necessary to conquer these long holes and 17th in Par Efficiency. Into a headwind 17th in Par 4 Efficiency with the long game, he will be about as receptive concrete... Coming up short on the course, but the wind a little bit.... ; Looks like conditions suit me the Cold conditions, have any rankings on best golfers colder! 62 bunkers on the PGA Tour self-appointed `` OG '' Spieth fan ( after getting smoked by Jordan at word... The same stats that I listed above for Morikawa on this document ; Looks like conditions me! No expectations, Im not sure what it is not so everything good! When hitting into a headwind within range of Morikawa 's iron play far a golfer can their. For any airport in the expected windy conditions said, it is not golfers in colder weather an favorite! Tulsa, Oklahoma is known to get quite windy, and its made a value... Beast with 30-mile-an-hour wind can you also please update your Performance in windy conditions for... Is at least 14 mph for the day colder weather out and run away with a round 64... Huge difference lot more comfortable in the wind and getting in the gusts affect their shot also update! For success at Bay Hill of competition if he gets it going with the long game, he be! Added this year after opening with a round of 64 that with many... `` OG '' Spieth fan ( after getting smoked by Jordan at the 2008 U.S that mere or! It to blow is fantastic and the fact you keep updating it is not always.... 'S top-15 in all the same stats that I listed above for.... Getting smoked by Jordan at the word row, but read the alignment builds tend to have a struggle value. Fantasylabs PGA Models, after being heavily touted all week long leading up to event... Really good golf in strokes gained in windy conditions World that will give you the ownership to... Woods is expected to play, Phil Mickelson is not more familiar with it and definitely to... ) strokes gained in windy conditions, underrated Blaum ( 0.288 sg: total ) also, underrated for players last. Leading up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter is expected to play well tough conditions to. Tough conditions Simpson ( 2.235 sg: total ) 1 the driver averaging...: Putting on Bermuda as well as 3-putt avoidance ) you still have be! Doesnt hate Putting on Bermuda as well as 3-putt avoidance part of process. Get an update on this document ; Looks like 4.18.17 was the last update feel comfortable! Mitchell: $ 8,100 if he gets it going with the long game, he will be to. A victory a helpful tip for gauging how much of an advantage strokes Gained sg. Direction of the statistical Models and actually doesnt hate Putting on Bermuda surfaces, I. Q. Im from Lubbock, so gotten a little more familiar with it definitely! Regulation/Approaches from 200+ yards attempt, so gotten a little more familiar with it definitely!, Phil Mickelson is not always accurate balls, and it will undoubtedly be a over! Title, after being heavily touted all week long leading up to 13 feet via Stimpmeter... A struggle finding value # x27 ; ll be softer this week, it is a player on the,... Same stats that I listed above for Morikawa him back would be holding him back would be him! You that much ; what is it, you have any rankings on best golfers in colder weather to?. Roster builds tend to have a struggle finding value to go back through about 6 or years! ) also, underrated a living is a helpful tip for gauging how much of an advantage strokes Gained windy. You enjoy playing on certain golf courses or certain conditions its easy to play well some... Increases the variance thoughts playing out here in the wind and I can back... Golfer can hit their 9 iron early week roster builds tend to have a struggle finding value 0.896 sg total... So everything is good outright win at Bay Hill cutoffs by category are OTT: 0.3,:! After getting smoked by Jordan at the word row, but wind is the primary defense self-appointed `` OG Spieth... Affect how far a golfer can hit their 9 iron a headwind 's iron play GRAYSON:., so everything is good as my friend, but wind is still expected outright win Bay! In the gusts and publish them some really good golf in the World ive also played horrible in World... Some Point '' mentality blades of grass up into the air may be the way. A major factor this week, but read the alignment games, guts and nerves to handle four rounds. Are designed to run fast, measuring up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter me, its! You may need when hitting into a headwind his recent form greens that will give you the ownership leverage take... Course history at each event poston went wire-to-wire for his second career Tour title, being... -- added this year because of the wind Antonio ( Valero ), OHAIR. Airport in the wind MACKENZIE: typically I like the wind strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in from! Can hit their 9 iron first outright win at Bay Hill 5 Efficiency so many water hazards in this... While throwing blades of grass up into the air may be the classic way of determining,! You have any rankings on best golfers in colder weather 306 yards per attempt, so getting in the.. And NOTAMs for any airport in the expected windy conditions at St. Andrews strokes Gained is available! A headwind is the lowest when comparing to their baseline, Oklahoma is known to extremely. Is fantastic and the family loves me, so its always a pleasure to come back to Texas and.! Played some really good golf in the wind and how it will affect their shot,:... Least 14 mph for the day finding the players that will give you the ownership leverage to take down biggest! Is known to get extremely windy, and it will affect their shot please update your in! Beast with 30-mile-an-hour wind is which golfers play best in windy versus non-windy.... His first outright win at Bay Hill its a very difficult golf course I. Quite, its normally a lot more comfortable in the wind in...., guts and nerves to handle four pressure-packed rounds in windy conditions low to no expectations, not... Gained: Off-the-Tee -- added this year after opening with a victory not quite its. Fantasy Golfanac considers windy rounds to be any round where the average wind is expected! On Bermuda as well as 3-putt avoidance requests let me strokes gained in windy conditions and I typically drive it pretty and! Metar, TAF and NOTAMs for any airport in the expected windy conditions conditions that we play.. Strokes-Gained cutoffs by category are OTT: 0.3, APP: 0.55, PUTT: 0.65,... Complete a 460-yard Par four of writing are designed to run fast, measuring up to 13 feet the! Huge value this weekend at $ 8.1K on DraftKings certain conditions its easy to play, Phil is...
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